2026-10-14T07:23:57Z https://api.figshare.com/v2/oai

oai:figshare.com:article/7931156 2026-09-30T23:28:29Z category_7 category_13 category_21 category_39 category_811 category_69 category_133 portal_87 item_type_6 month_year_09_2026

Predictive model of aflatoxin contamination risk associated with granary-stored corn with versicolorin A monitoring and logistic regression Meng Ping Jiang (6275225) Shao Yan Zheng (6275228) Hao Wang (39217) Shu Yao Zhang (6275231) Dong Sheng Yao (6275234) Chun Fang Xie (6275237) Da Ling Liu (25147023) Medicine Genetics Biotechnology Ecology Mathematical Sciences not elsewhere classified Inorganic Chemistry Plant Biology Aflatoxin aflatoxin contamination predictive mycology logistic regression versicolorin A Predictions of aflatoxin (AF) in grain at post-harvest can be useful for ensuring the safety of stored grain. Versicolorin (Ver) A, a precursor of AFB1, can serve as an early indicator of AF contamination, even when AFs themselves are present at undetectable levels. In the current research, we developed a probabilistic model based on logistic regression and Ver A levels to estimate the risk of AF contamination in stored corn. Moisture content, aflatoxigenic fungal load, and initial and maximum values of Ver A in the first three sampling cycles were experimentally determined as the four important factors for the probabilistic model. Both internal and external model validations were shown to be high at 96.4% and 93.3%, respectively. For high-risk samples, a precise model was developed to predict the maximum period of safe storage, which can be useful for decision-making by the stakeholders in feed and food supply chain. Our findings provide a basis tool for establishing an early warning system for AF contamination in granaries, which can improve global food safety. Assay procedures of the molecular imprinted polymer based chemiluminescence method for determination of chloramphenicol 2019-04-01T08:19:58Z Text Journal contribution 10.6084/m9.figshare.7931156.v2 https://figshare.com/articles/journal_contribution/Predictive_model_of_aflatoxin_contamination_risk_associated_with_granary-stored_corn_with_versicolorin_A_monitoring_and_logistic_regression/7931156 CC BY 4.0