2026-10-06T17:37:05Z https://api.figshare.com/v2/oai

oai:figshare.com:article/34061583 2026-10-02T23:30:08Z category_27682 category_27688 item_type_3 month_year_10_2026

Allied Isolation Dataset: Simulation, Historical Validation, Falsification, and Condition Discovery Osuke Doijiri (24913549) International relations Peace studies Allied isolation International relations Alliances Network fragmentation Peace and conflict studies <p dir="ltr">This dataset accompanies the development and empirical testing of the Allied Isolation framework, which examines whether a state can become more strongly connected to its formal allies while simultaneously becoming less connected to the wider international system.</p><p dir="ltr">The dataset contains aggregated outputs from theoretical simulations, historical analyses using alliance and bilateral trade data, a falsification test using militarized interstate disputes, and exploratory analyses of the conditions associated with Allied Isolation. Alliance–Connectivity Divergence (ACD) is introduced as a measure of the divergence between alliance-linked connectivity and extra-alliance connectivity.</p><p dir="ltr">The research proceeded as a falsifiable sequence. Simulations first demonstrated that strengthened intra-alliance connectivity and declining external connectivity can coexist. Historical alliance–trade analyses then identified corresponding patterns in observed state-year data. A subsequent test of the initial hypothesis that indirect exposure to militarized conflict generally increases Allied Isolation did not support that simple mechanism. Exploratory analyses were therefore conducted to identify alternative structural correlates, including alliance-network embeddedness and historical variation.</p><p dir="ltr">Importantly, the dataset preserves both supportive and non-supportive results. The analyses are intended for theory development and hypothesis generation and should not be interpreted as establishing a causal effect of alliances or armed conflict on international isolation.</p><p dir="ltr">Raw Correlates of War source datasets are not redistributed in this archive. The package contains simulation results, aggregated analytical outputs, model coefficients, operational definitions, methodological documentation, and information required to reproduce the analytical framework using separately obtained source data.</p> 2026-10-02T23:30:08Z Dataset Dataset 10.6084/m9.figshare.34061583.v1 https://figshare.com/articles/dataset/Allied_Isolation_Dataset_Simulation_Historical_Validation_Falsification_and_Condition_Discovery/34061583 CC BY 4.0