2026-10-14T05:12:45Z https://api.figshare.com/v2/oai

oai:figshare.com:article/34054458 2026-10-02T05:35:43Z category_34 portal_316 item_type_3 month_year_10_2026

Data Sheet 1_Land-use dynamics and multi-scenario projections in a mountainous ecological barrier: ecosystem service value responses and spatial sensitivity.pdf Shutao Zhou (12275035) Yingqi Lin (14495219) Chulun Sun (25162470) Weina Zhou (9957128) Environmental Science ecosystem service value land-use change Markov–PLUS model mountainous ecological barrier multi-scenario projections Qinling Mountains spatial sensitivity Introduction<p>Regional changes in ecosystem service value (ESV) may remain limited even when land-use conversion produces pronounced ecological gains or losses at specific locations, making aggregate scenario comparisons insufficient for identifying spatially concentrated responses.</p>Methods<p>Taking the Shaanxi section of the Qinling Mountains as a representative mountainous ecological barrier region, this study examined land-use dynamics from 2000 to 2020 and projected land-use patterns to 2040 under natural development, urban development, cropland protection, and ecological protection scenarios. We coupled Markov–PLUS scenario projections with an equivalent-factor ESV assessment and developed a 240-m grid-based sensitivity index (SI) to relate local relative ESV change to the intensity of land-use conversion.</p>Results<p>Historical hindcasting achieved an overall accuracy of 92.03% and a Kappa coefficient of 0.780. Across the four scenarios, total ESV changed only modestly, ranging from a 0.84% decline under urban development to a 0.42% increase under ecological protection. However, the SI revealed strong and spatially concentrated responses that were not apparent from regional totals. Negative responses were concentrated mainly in river valleys, piedmont zones, peri-urban areas, and forest margins under urban development, whereas positive responses were most extensive under ecological protection. High baseline ESV remained concentrated in continuous mountainous forest areas, while the strongest responses occurred in more actively changing low-elevation transition zones.</p>Discussion<p>These results demonstrate that relative stability in regional ESV does not imply spatially uniform ecological effects. Combining aggregate ESV with conversion-normalized local responses provides additional information for identifying locations where limited land-use change may generate disproportionately strong ecological consequences.</p> 2026-10-02T05:35:43Z Dataset Dataset 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1942894.s001 https://figshare.com/articles/dataset/Data_Sheet_1_Land-use_dynamics_and_multi-scenario_projections_in_a_mountainous_ecological_barrier_ecosystem_service_value_responses_and_spatial_sensitivity_pdf/34054458 CC BY 4.0