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oai:figshare.com:article/34049048 2026-10-01T17:41:16Z category_7 category_15 category_21 category_24 category_39 category_64 category_122 category_132 portal_5 item_type_1 month_year_10_2026

<p>Changes in the probability of a major outbreak in Nigeria.</p> Abbie Evans (20873706) William S. Hart (9187021) Eunok Jung (3430424) Kyeongah Nah (6796805) Karla Bonic-Babic (25157876) Sung-mok Jung (14037878) Robin N. Thompson (2591524) Medicine Neuroscience Biotechnology Evolutionary Biology Ecology Cancer Mental Health Infectious Diseases structured mathematical model specific contact patterns since contact patterns pathogen introductions initiate lower contact rates infectious disease dynamics extended workforce participation ageing society ). world &# 8217 substantial outbreak depends associated behavioural responses associated behavioural characteristics population &# 8217 term demographic transitions major outbreak due infectiousness often vary major outbreak &# 160 outbreak risks oldest population behavioural context behavioural adaptation sustained transmission older individuals later retirement incorporating changes findings demonstrate demographic changes case study <p>A. Age distribution of the population of Nigeria in 2000, 2025 and 2050, based on United Nations estimates in 2000 and 2025 and projections for 2050 [<a href="http://www.ploscompbiol.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1014319#pcbi.1014319.ref018" target="_blank">18</a>]. The values at the top of this panel indicate the estimated total population sizes in those years. B. The probability of a major outbreak starting from a single infected individual in the specified age group (orange bars) in the year 2000. The population average probability of a major outbreak (black) and the contact-weighted average probability of a major outbreak (red dashed) are also shown. C. Analogous figure to panel B, but for 2025. D. Analogous figure to panel B, but for 2050.</p> 2026-10-01T18:02:36Z Image Figure 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1014319.g005 https://figshare.com/articles/figure/_p_Changes_in_the_probability_of_a_major_outbreak_in_Nigeria_p_/34049048 CC BY 4.0