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oai:figshare.com:article/34049036 2026-10-01T17:41:11Z category_7 category_15 category_21 category_24 category_39 category_64 category_122 category_132 portal_5 item_type_1 month_year_10_2026

Fig 1 - <p>Demographic changes and behavioural responses shape vulnerability to infectious disease outbreaks</p> Abbie Evans (20873706) William S. Hart (9187021) Eunok Jung (3430424) Kyeongah Nah (6796805) Karla Bonic-Babic (25157876) Sung-mok Jung (14037878) Robin N. Thompson (2591524) Medicine Neuroscience Biotechnology Evolutionary Biology Ecology Cancer Mental Health Infectious Diseases structured mathematical model specific contact patterns since contact patterns pathogen introductions initiate lower contact rates infectious disease dynamics extended workforce participation ageing society ). world &# 8217 substantial outbreak depends associated behavioural responses associated behavioural characteristics population &# 8217 term demographic transitions major outbreak due infectiousness often vary major outbreak &# 160 outbreak risks oldest population behavioural context behavioural adaptation sustained transmission older individuals later retirement incorporating changes findings demonstrate demographic changes case study <p>A. Schematic illustrating that, when an index case arrives in a host population, there are two possibilities for the outbreak that follows: either sustained transmission occurs (a major outbreak) or the outbreak fades out with few cases (a minor outbreak). B. The contact matrix in South Korea in 2020 (), representing the expected daily number of unique contacts that an individual in the age group shown on the x-axis has with individuals in the age group shown on the y-axis. The graph shown on top represents the total expected daily number of unique contacts that an individual in the age group shown on the x-axis has (i.e., the sum down each column of the heatmap). C. Age distribution of the population of South Korea in 2000, 2025 and 2050, based on United Nations estimates in 2000 and 2025 and projections for 2050 [<a href="http://www.ploscompbiol.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1014319#pcbi.1014319.ref018" target="_blank">18</a>]. The values at the top of this panel indicate the estimated total population sizes in those years.</p> 2026-10-01T18:02:36Z Image Figure 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1014319.g001 https://figshare.com/articles/figure/Fig_1_-_p_Demographic_changes_and_behavioural_responses_shape_vulnerability_to_infectious_disease_outbreaks_p_/34049036 CC BY 4.0