2026-10-13T18:17:05Z https://api.figshare.com/v2/oai

oai:figshare.com:article/34035845 2026-09-30T17:41:52Z category_1 category_15 category_21 category_734 category_931 category_132 portal_5 item_type_1 month_year_09_2026

<p>Full-season forecasts.</p> Joseph Lemaitre (25145381) Justin Lessler (116180) Biophysics Neuroscience Biotechnology Biological Sciences not elsewhere classified Information Systems not elsewhere classified Infectious Diseases somewhat overconfident projections leading ensemble methods cdc flusight challenges capture multimodal uncertainty achieves forecast accuracy 2024 &# 8211 2022 &# 8211 influpaint generates realistic encoding influenza seasons provide important information generative diffusion models diverse epidemic trajectories diffusion models influpaint learns influenza dynamics simulated trajectories epidemic dynamics time evaluation spatiotemporal images rich distribution retrospective evaluation partial observations hybrid dataset highly accurate flexible framework emergent trends disease dynamics current mechanistic conditional generation best performance <p><b>a.</b> Each panel for the United States, California, New York, and Texas shows reported hospitalizations (black line). The colored dashed vertical line marks the last observed week for a given forecast, with the forecast quantiles from 512 conditional trajectories (colored bands) representing the probabilistic forecast. Ten example trajectories are highlighted as thin colored lines. The histograms show changes in hospitalizations across the 512 orange forecast trajectories from December 2 to December 23, 2023, in panel <b>a</b> and from January 11 to February 1, 2025, in panel <b>b</b>. The gray dotted lines mark these target weeks. Negative and positive changes indicate declining and increasing hospitalizations, respectively, with zero change marked by a dashed line in each inset. <b>b.</b> Same as panel a, but for the 2024–2025 influenza season.</p> 2026-09-30T18:00:00Z Image Figure 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1014846.g003 https://figshare.com/articles/figure/_p_Full-season_forecasts_p_/34035845 CC BY 4.0