2026-10-14T08:39:05Z https://api.figshare.com/v2/oai

oai:figshare.com:article/34035842 2026-09-30T17:41:51Z category_1 category_15 category_21 category_734 category_931 category_132 portal_5 item_type_1 month_year_09_2026

<p>4-week-ahead forecasts.</p> Joseph Lemaitre (25145381) Justin Lessler (116180) Biophysics Neuroscience Biotechnology Biological Sciences not elsewhere classified Information Systems not elsewhere classified Infectious Diseases somewhat overconfident projections leading ensemble methods cdc flusight challenges capture multimodal uncertainty achieves forecast accuracy 2024 &# 8211 2022 &# 8211 influpaint generates realistic encoding influenza seasons provide important information generative diffusion models diverse epidemic trajectories diffusion models influpaint learns influenza dynamics simulated trajectories epidemic dynamics time evaluation spatiotemporal images rich distribution retrospective evaluation partial observations hybrid dataset highly accurate flexible framework emergent trends disease dynamics current mechanistic conditional generation best performance <p><b>a.</b> Each panel shows 4-week-ahead forecasts for North Carolina, New York, Texas, and Florida at multiple forecast dates. The dashed colored vertical lines mark the last week of observed data for a given forecast. Forecast uncertainty is summarized by quantiles (colored fan) and the median (colored line) from 512 conditional trajectories. The solid black line shows the observed final values. For the same reference dates, the FluSight ensemble forecast is shown as a dotted line. <b>b.</b> Same as panel a, but for the 2024–2025 influenza season.</p> 2026-09-30T18:00:00Z Image Figure 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1014846.g002 https://figshare.com/articles/figure/_p_4-week-ahead_forecasts_p_/34035842 CC BY 4.0