2026-10-13T21:30:31Z https://api.figshare.com/v2/oai

oai:figshare.com:article/34035839 2026-09-30T17:41:50Z category_1 category_15 category_21 category_734 category_931 category_132 portal_5 item_type_1 month_year_09_2026

<p>Influenza trajectories generated by Influpaint.</p> Joseph Lemaitre (25145381) Justin Lessler (116180) Biophysics Neuroscience Biotechnology Biological Sciences not elsewhere classified Information Systems not elsewhere classified Infectious Diseases somewhat overconfident projections leading ensemble methods cdc flusight challenges capture multimodal uncertainty achieves forecast accuracy 2024 &# 8211 2022 &# 8211 influpaint generates realistic encoding influenza seasons provide important information generative diffusion models diverse epidemic trajectories diffusion models influpaint learns influenza dynamics simulated trajectories epidemic dynamics time evaluation spatiotemporal images rich distribution retrospective evaluation partial observations hybrid dataset highly accurate flexible framework emergent trends disease dynamics current mechanistic conditional generation best performance <p><b>a.</b> The colored bands show the quantiles across 512 generated trajectories of weekly hospital admissions for California, New York, Texas, Florida, and Montana; three example trajectories are highlighted in the inset. Black lines show realized historical influenza seasons from the National Healthcare Safety Network data for each state. <b>b.</b> Pairwise cross-state weekly incidence correlations from Influpaint-generated trajectories, compared with a time-permuted null expectation and with observed correlations from recent historical seasons.</p> 2026-09-30T18:00:00Z Image Figure 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1014846.g001 https://figshare.com/articles/figure/_p_Influenza_trajectories_generated_by_Influpaint_p_/34035839 CC BY 4.0