2026-10-12T12:06:04Z https://api.figshare.com/v2/oai

oai:figshare.com:article/34033774 2026-09-30T16:08:53Z category_19 category_272 category_873 category_734 category_106 portal_63 item_type_6 month_year_09_2026

Afforestation and Emission Cuts: Dual Drivers for China’s Clean Air and Carbon Neutrality Mingchen Ma (11831869) Shuxiao Wang (1406992) Bin Zhao (276445) Hao Xu (6530) Yueqi Jiang (11718020) Qian Song (703098) Yisheng Sun (10111651) Dejia Yin (14525372) Shengyue Li (9717863) Shilong Piao (527767) Qian Liu (135614) Hong He (221185) Jincai Zhao (1395811) Kebin He (797417) Jiming Hao (1407004) Pharmacology Environmental Sciences not elsewhere classified Chemical Sciences not elsewhere classified Biological Sciences not elsewhere classified Science Policy secondary organic aerosol current anthropogenic emissions 20 %– 24 air pollution control 20 – 3 china using high anthropogenic emission reductions identical afforestation extents 5 </ sub 3 </ sub 3 </ sup clean air unresolved puzzle total bvoc synergistic carbon slight suppression results show reduction pathways reduce local pollutant mitigation new phase interactive effects induced increases enhance ozone emission cuts eastern china dual drivers china ’ carbon neutrality 93 ppbv 82 tg 67 %. 47 μg 39 μg Under China’s carbon neutrality and “Beautiful China” agendas, air pollution control has entered a new phase of synergistic carbon and pollutant mitigation. Meanwhile, large-scale afforestation is projected to strengthen natural carbon sinks but may also elevate emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) that enhance ozone (O₃) and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation. However, their interaction with deep anthropogenic emission reductions and the resulting air quality outcomes remains an unresolved puzzle. Here, we assess the interactive effects of large-scale afforestation and anthropogenic emission reductions on O₃ and PM_2.5 concentrations in China using high-resolution emission inventories integrated with an advanced chemical transport model. Our results show that afforestation at its maximum potential could raise summer BVOC emissions in China by 3.20–3.82 Tg (20%–24% of current level), mainly across southern China. Under current anthropogenic emissions, these BVOC emissions elevate summer averaged MDA8 O₃ and PM_2.5 concentrations in eastern China by 0.74 ppbv (−0.09 to 5.93 ppbv) and 0.39 μg/m³ (0.02 to 3.47 μg/m³), accounting for 15% and 30% of the total BVOC-induced increases, respectively. In contrast, with continued anthropogenic emission reductions under carbon neutrality, the O₃ response to afforestation shifts from enhancement to slight suppression, while SOA-related PM₂.₅ formation declines by 67%. Moreover, for identical afforestation extents, differences in tree species composition alone can reduce local O₃ impacts to less than one-third. These findings reveal coordinated strategies aligning afforestation planning with emission-reduction pathways can more effectively improve air quality while advancing carbon neutrality goals, thereby safeguarding public health. 2026-09-30T00:00:00Z Text Journal contribution 10.1021/acs.est.6c04722.s001 https://figshare.com/articles/journal_contribution/Afforestation_and_Emission_Cuts_Dual_Drivers_for_China_s_Clean_Air_and_Carbon_Neutrality/34033774 CC BY-NC 4.0