2026-10-14T00:15:25Z https://api.figshare.com/v2/oai

oai:figshare.com:article/34029510 2026-09-30T04:36:07Z category_575 portal_316 item_type_3 month_year_09_2026

Data Sheet 1_Livestock-driven agricultural expansion and the transformation of a dryland food system in northern Mexico.pdf Maricruz González-Alvarado (25141329) Alma Mendoza-Ponce (10194860) Quetzalcóatl Orozco-Ramírez (17102248) Lucrecia Arellano (25141332) Martha Bonilla-Moheno (9570965) Food Packaging, Preservation and Safety agricultural expansion dryland agri-food systems forage crops land change trajectory livestock production Introduction<p>Agricultural expansion and intensification are major drivers of land use and land cover change, with significant implications for ecosystems and natural resource sustainability. In dryland regions, the expansion of livestock-oriented production systems can drive the specialization of agricultural production systems and accelerate landscape transformation. This study examines how livestock-driven agricultural expansion is reshaping land-use patterns in the Comarca Lagunera, a major dryland food-producing region in northern Mexico and one of the country’s most important dairy basins.</p>Methods<p>Agricultural and livestock production trends were analyzed using official statistics, while land cover changes for 2003, 2013, and 2023 were mapped from Landsat imagery using Google Earth Engine. Future land use and land cover trajectories to 2050 were simulated under two scenarios representing the long-term historical trend and recent historical trend, using a spatially explicit model incorporating biophysical and socioeconomic drivers.</p>Results<p>The expansion of forage crops associated with intensive livestock production became the dominant change, primarily replacing native shrubland and food crops destined for human consumption. Between 2003 and 2023, forage crops expanded from 51 to 70% of the harvested area, while crops destined for human consumption declined from 23 to 4%. Land conversion was strongly associated with infrastructure accessibility, climatic suitability, and livestock-sector activity. Under the recent historical trend, more than 2,000 km2 of natural cover could be lost by 2050, with potential implications for water availability and ecosystem conservation in a region already affected by groundwater stress.</p>Discussion<p>These findings illustrate how livestock-oriented production can drive the specialization of agricultural systems and reconfigure landscapes, while highlighting the need for integrated land-use planning and water management.</p> 2026-09-30T04:36:07Z Dataset Dataset 10.3389/fsufs.2026.1923361.s001 https://figshare.com/articles/dataset/Data_Sheet_1_Livestock-driven_agricultural_expansion_and_the_transformation_of_a_dryland_food_system_in_northern_Mexico_pdf/34029510 CC BY 4.0