2026-10-14T08:55:44Z https://api.figshare.com/v2/oai

oai:figshare.com:article/34028652 2026-09-30T02:33:40Z category_27634 category_27637 category_29173 category_26008 item_type_3 month_year_09_2026

Early warning of low execution in Peruvian public investment projects: project-year panel dataset, 2015–2025 Miluska Rodriguez-Saavedra (23594950) Public administration Public policy Machine learning not elsewhere classified Applied economics not elsewhere classified Public investments. Budget execution early warning effect machine learning -- design public finance policy Open Government Data Portal. <p dir="ltr">This dataset supports the article "Early warning of low execution in public investment: prediction with LightGBM and SHAP explainability". It contains a project-year panel of 539,871 observations covering all Peruvian public investment projects with a modified budget (PIM > 0) between 2015 and 2025, across national, regional and local governments.</p><p dir="ltr">Unit of analysis: investment project (CUI) by budget year t.</p><p dir="ltr">Target variable: annual execution rate in year t (accrued expenditure / PIM), with binary low-execution indicators at 40%, 50% and 60% thresholds for sensitivity analysis.</p><p dir="ltr">Predictors: only information available at the start of year t, to prevent data leakage. They include the opening budget (PIA) of year t and its financing sources; the project's budget, expenditure and execution rate in t-1; accumulated execution up to t-1; financial progress relative to the viable amount; the executing unit's execution rate and portfolio size in t-1; and fixed project attributes (government level, sector, function, location, viable amount, viability year, investment type, modality and typology). Current-snapshot variables such as updated cost and physical progress were excluded because their historical values are not published.</p><p dir="ltr">Files: the ZIP contains nine Excel workbooks split by year (2015–2016, 2017–2018, and one per year from 2019 to 2025). Each workbook has four sheets: Panel_proyecto_anio (data, 57 variables), Diccionario (variable definitions, role and time of availability), Resumen_por_anio (annual counts and low-execution rates) and Fuentes (source URLs).</p><p dir="ltr">Source: Peru's Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) Open Data Portal (<a href="https://datosabiertos.mef.gob.pe" target="_blank">https://datosabiertos.mef.gob.pe</a>), datasets "Seguimiento de Proyectos de Inversión" 2014–2025 and the Investment Bank records of active, closed and deactivated investments. Downloaded on 29 September 2026. Variable names and category labels are in Spanish, as published by the MEF.</p> 2026-09-30T02:33:40Z Dataset Dataset 10.6084/m9.figshare.34028652.v1 https://figshare.com/articles/dataset/Early_warning_of_low_execution_in_Peruvian_public_investment_projects_project-year_panel_dataset_2015_2025/34028652 CC BY 4.0