2026-10-14T05:34:04Z https://api.figshare.com/v2/oai

oai:figshare.com:article/34024779 2026-09-29T15:48:37Z category_25963 item_type_3 month_year_09_2026

<b>Clean Technology Innovation and Rare Earth Supply: The Moderating Role of Sustainability Uncertainty</b> Khizar Abbas (22417660) Environment and resource economics Innovation & Technology Rare Earth ElementsThe demand Sustainability and security <p dir="ltr">The study focuses on that while the rapid expansion of clean technologies is increasing expected demand for rare earth elements (REEs), yet whether advances in clean technology innovation translate into corresponding expansion of upstream REE supply remains insufficiently understood. This transmission may be particularly sensitive to sustainability-related uncertainty, which can affect investment expectations, project timing, regulatory conditions, and the willingness of producers to expand capital-intensive mineral capacity. Understanding this relationship is important because the transition toward cleaner technologies depends not only on technological progress and deployment, but also on the availability of the mineral resources required to support that transition.</p><p dir="ltr">Our study addresses this gap by examining whether clean-technology innovation (CTI) is associated with REE mine supply and whether sustainability uncertainty (SUI) conditions this relationship. We construct a composite CTI index from patent activity in electric mobility and wind-energy technologies and examine ten major REE-producing economies over 2000–2023. Clean-technology investment (CLI) is also incorporated as a complementary investment-side determinant. Given the strong cross-sectional dependence and slope heterogeneity identified in the data, we employ dynamic CS-ARDL as the main estimator and Dynamic Common Correlated Effects (DCCE) as a robustness approach.</p><p dir="ltr">The results provide three main insights. First, clean-technology innovation is positively associated with REE mine supply in both the short and long run, indicating that technological progress in REE-intensive clean-technology sectors is accompanied by stronger upstream supply responses. Second, the interaction between CTI and SUI is negative, showing that higher sustainability uncertainty weakens the supply response associated with clean-technology innovation. This moderating relationship is evident in the short-run CS-ARDL estimates and receives additional long-run support from the DCCE estimates. The finding helps explain why technological progress does not necessarily translate proportionately into new upstream mineral capacity when producers face greater uncertainty surrounding sustainability-related conditions. Third, clean-technology investment is positively associated with REE supply in the long run, highlighting the complementary role of investment in translating technological opportunities into productive capacity.</p> 2026-09-29T15:48:37Z Dataset Dataset 10.6084/m9.figshare.34024779.v1 https://figshare.com/articles/dataset/_b_Clean_Technology_Innovation_and_Rare_Earth_Supply_The_Moderating_Role_of_Sustainability_Uncertainty_b_/34024779 CC BY 4.0