2026-10-06T16:03:37Z https://api.figshare.com/v2/oai

oai:figshare.com:article/34018239 2026-09-28T19:05:48Z category_27517 category_27526 category_27619 category_26002 category_26875 category_28864 category_25033 category_27691 item_type_12 month_year_09_2026

Raising Adaptive Capacity Through Productive Economic Convergence: How income growth and industrialization expand societies' ability to absorb shocks Hunter Hughes (25092079) Political economy and social change Socio-economic development Economic development policy Urban and regional economics Human impacts of climate change and human adaptation Artificial intelligence not elsewhere classified Regional analysis and development Political theory and political philosophy Adaptive Capacity Absorptive Capacity Compound Convergence Multiplier (CCM) D‑coefficient Productive Convergence Structural Transformation Shock Absorption Societies absorb shocks not by chance but by accumulating buffers, institutions, infrastructure, and productive capacity that turn hazards into manageable losses. This report argues that the most reliable path to large‑scale resilience is productive economic convergence: broad‑based income growth rooted in industrialization and deliberately converted into protective assets. Income alone does not guarantee safety; what matters is the Adaptive Conversion Rate (ACR) — the share of each income gain that becomes durable absorptive capacity.Drawing on global evidence, the report shows that disaster mortality falls sharply with development — low‑income countries averaged 332 deaths per disaster versus 105 in high‑income countries — yet many fast‑growing economies still carry large protection deficits. Bangladesh demonstrates that capacity can be built ahead of income: cyclone deaths fell from 300,000+ in 1970 to ~26 in 2020 through early warning, shelters, and volunteers, even before major income gains. But buffers such as social protection and insurance lag badly: only 9.7% of people in low‑income countries receive any social protection benefit, and 80–90% of disaster losses in emerging economies are uninsured.Industrialization strengthens resilience by diversifying economies and expanding formal employment, but it also increases exposure, as shown by Typhoon Yagi’s US$3.3B impact on Vietnam’s manufacturing hubs. Meanwhile, adaptation finance needs for developing countries will reach US$310–365B annually by 2035, compared with just US$26B in current international flows — a 12–14× gap.To convert growth into protection, the report introduces the RISE Framework: Raise productive incomes, Industrialize and diversify, Secure buffers, Equip institutions. These four pillars jointly determine the ACR and explain why some countries turn growth into resilience while others remain exposed. The report concludes with comparative cases, 2035 scenarios, and a ten‑year roadmap showing how countries can raise their conversion rate through targeted investment, diversification, shock‑responsive social protection, early warning systems, and concessional finance. 2026-09-28T19:05:48Z Text Preprint 10.6084/m9.figshare.34018239.v1 https://figshare.com/articles/preprint/Raising_Adaptive_Capacity_Through_Productive_Economic_Convergence_How_income_growth_and_industrialization_expand_societies_ability_to_absorb_shocks/34018239 CC BY 4.0