2026-10-10T11:52:23Z https://api.figshare.com/v2/oai

oai:figshare.com:article/33992239 2026-09-25T04:27:42Z category_575 portal_316 item_type_3 month_year_09_2026

Supplementary file 1_Extreme climate shocks and agricultural net carbon sinks: the moderating role of supply chain resilience in China.docx Chunyan Zhao (141856) Jiajie Xia (23707498) Guoping Ding (7005446) Food Packaging, Preservation and Safety agricultural supply chain resilience climate adaptation extreme climate shocks low-carbon agriculture production-based agricultural carbon balance Introduction<p>Extreme climate shocks increasingly challenge the ability of agricultural systems to sustain crop carbon fixation while controlling production-related emissions.</p>Methods<p>Using panel data for 240 Chinese cities from 2002 to 2023, this study examines the relationships between four climate shocks—extreme high temperature (HTD), extreme low temperature (LTD), extreme rainfall (ERD), and extreme drought (EED)—and agricultural net carbon sinks (NCS), together with the moderating role of agricultural supply chain resilience. NCS is measured as annual crop-biomass carbon fixation net of selected agricultural production emissions, thereby providing an integrated, production-based indicator of agricultural carbon performance.</p>Results<p>Two-way fixed-effects estimates show that all four climate shocks are negatively associated with NCS, and the direction of these relationships remains stable across alternative accounting boundaries, sample adjustments, leave-one-province-out tests, and double machine learning specifications. Agricultural supply chain resilience significantly conditions the climate–carbon relationship. Its resistance, recovery, and reorientation capacities attenuate the adverse associations of high-temperature, extreme-rainfall, and drought shocks with NCS. The low-temperature result further indicates that the effectiveness of resilience depends on matching supply chain functions with the biological mechanisms and intervention windows of specific climate hazards. Heterogeneity analyses confirm that climate sensitivity and resilience requirements vary with regional location, agricultural productivity, modernization, and irrigation conditions. Complementary machine-learning analysis identifies nonlinear predictive patterns and reinforces the importance of differentiated adaptation.</p>Discussion<p>These findings extend agricultural climate research from production and emissions to an integrated carbon-balance perspective and demonstrate that hazard-specific supply chain resilience can support both climate adaptation and low-carbon agricultural development.</p> 2026-09-25T04:27:42Z Dataset Dataset 10.3389/fsufs.2026.1940685 https://figshare.com/articles/dataset/Supplementary_file_1_Extreme_climate_shocks_and_agricultural_net_carbon_sinks_the_moderating_role_of_supply_chain_resilience_in_China_docx/33992239 CC BY 4.0