2026-10-11T17:22:23Z https://api.figshare.com/v2/oai

oai:figshare.com:article/33985987 2026-09-29T11:50:30Z category_25951 category_26851 category_26998 category_27532 category_27637 item_type_12 month_year_09_2026

<b>From Agricultural Support to Climate Resilience: A Data-Driven Framework for Agricultural</b> Knowledge Mhodi (24999778) Agricultural economics Agricultural engineering Other environmental sciences not elsewhere classified Development studies not elsewhere classified Public policy Zimbabwe Agricultural Investment Climate Resilience Index climate variability change risk rainfall model crop yield rainfall variability Agricultural stress <p dir="ltr">This study develops a data-driven framework for climate-resilient agricultural investment in Zimbabwe. It examines how historical agricultural and climate data can be used to identify different sources and patterns of agricultural vulnerability and to match these conditions with appropriate categories of resilience investment.</p><p dir="ltr">The analysis combines FAOSTAT crop statistics for 2000–2023, ERA5 reanalysis climate data from the World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal, and provincial Agricultural Stress Index and crop-area rainfall data from FAO GIEWS/ASIS. Production is decomposed into harvested-area and yield components, while rainfall–crop relationships and provincial drought exposure are examined.</p><p dir="ltr">The results indicate that Zimbabwe’s recent agricultural climate challenge is characterised more by substantial rainfall variability than by a statistically significant decline in seasonal rainfall. Production instability in rainfed cereals is predominantly associated with yield variation, while irrigated wheat exhibits a contrasting pattern in which harvested-area variation accounts for most production variance. Drought exposure also differs substantially across provinces.</p><p dir="ltr">On this basis, the paper proposes a differentiated investment framework linking climate exposure, agricultural performance, the mechanism of instability, investment categories, and the evidence required before selecting specific interventions.</p><p dir="ltr">The framework is an analytical proposition derived from observational data. It does not rank investments, allocate budgets, or establish causal effects. A key evidence limitation is the absence of consistent publicly available provincial agricultural performance data, which constrains the precision with which investment profiles can currently be targeted.</p> 2026-09-29T11:50:30Z Text Preprint 10.6084/m9.figshare.33985987.v2 https://figshare.com/articles/preprint/_b_From_Agricultural_Support_to_Climate_Resilience_b_/33985987 CC BY 4.0