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oai:figshare.com:article/33979276 2026-09-24T04:30:19Z category_393 portal_316 item_type_3 month_year_09_2026

Table 1_Development and validation of a predictive model for rapid renal function decline in early IgA nephropathy: a multicenter retrospective study.docx Junan Zhou (10233030) Yang Liu (4829) Lixia Huo (9330024) Xu Wu (318848) Zhelun Zhou (20926499) Haodong Liu (1539514) Rong Wu (152554) Jiaai Zhang (20926502) Yiqing Yu (19229362) Deyong Fan (25101721) Xiaoyi Wang (90589) Foetal Development and Medicine IgA nephropathy lambda light chain Oxford C score prediction model rapid renal function decline <p>Immunoglobulin A nephropathy (IgAN) is a heterogeneous disease, and early identification of patients at high risk of rapid renal deterioration remains challenging. In this multicenter retrospective study, 483 patients with biopsy-proven IgAN at chronic kidney disease stages 1–3 were enrolled and randomly assigned to a training cohort (n = 338) and an internal validation cohort (n = 145). Rapid renal function decline was defined as a decline of at least 25% in estimated glomerular filtration rate or progression to ESRD, analyzed as a time-to-event outcome from renal biopsy (the 1-year risk was the principal metric reported). Independent predictors were identified using Cox proportional hazards regression, and a nomogram was developed and internally validated. In the training cohort, 83 patients (24.6%) reached the endpoint during follow-up (median time to event 13.6 months). Multivariable analysis showed that renal tissue Lambda light chain deposition, higher systolic blood pressure, serum chloride, blood urea nitrogen, and Oxford C score were independent risk factors, whereas higher serum complement C3 and potassium were protective factors. The nomogram showed good discrimination, with a 1-year time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.86 (95% CI: 0.81–0.92) in the training cohort and 0.80 (95% CI: 0.69–0.91) in the validation cohort. SHAP analysis identified Lambda light chain deposition as the most influential predictor. In conclusion, we developed and internally validated a nomogram integrating clinicopathological variables to predict rapid renal function decline in early-stage IgAN, which may facilitate early risk stratification and individualized management.</p> 2026-09-24T04:30:19Z Dataset Dataset 10.3389/fmed.2026.1857665.s001 https://figshare.com/articles/dataset/Table_1_Development_and_validation_of_a_predictive_model_for_rapid_renal_function_decline_in_early_IgA_nephropathy_a_multicenter_retrospective_study_docx/33979276 CC BY 4.0