2026-10-07T19:30:06Z https://api.figshare.com/v2/oai

oai:figshare.com:article/33965866 2026-09-22T15:05:04Z category_23857 category_23860 category_27622 item_type_3 month_year_09_2026

Climate Variability and Public-Sector Outcome Efficiency in Latin America: Dynamic Panel Evidence under Cross-Sectional Dependence Wilman Santiago Ochoa Moreno (24506144) Mario Andrés Contreras-Jaramillo (25090659) Agricultural land management Agricultural land planning Environment policy Fiscal resilience data envelopment analysis Climate shocks, <p dir="ltr">Climate variability can weaken the conversion of public expenditure into development outcomes, but macro-panel evidence is complicated by persistence, common shocks, and few-country inference. This study evaluates public-sector outcome efficiency in 19 Latin American countries during 2000–2022. A pooled output-oriented data envelopment analysis under variable returns to scale combines government consumption and health expenditure with human development, service access, and real income outcomes. Dynamic two-way fixed-effects models are estimated on 342 observations from 17 countries, with Driscoll–Kraay standard errors, split-panel jackknife correction, a 999-replication country bootstrap, leave-one-country-out analysis, and a constant-returns efficiency alternative. Efficiency is highly persistent (lag coefficient 0.78108). Temperature deviations are negatively associated with efficiency (−0.00643; Driscoll–Kraay p = 0.068) and remain negative under every country exclusion; the bootstrap 95% interval is [−0.01432, −0.00095]. Drought and flood frequency is negative (−0.00103), but its bootstrap interval marginally includes zero. CO2 emissions are not robustly associated with efficiency. The findings support climate-responsive budgeting and resilient public investment while remaining associational rather than causal.</p> 2026-09-22T15:05:04Z Dataset Dataset 10.6084/m9.figshare.33965866.v1 https://figshare.com/articles/dataset/Climate_Variability_and_Public-Sector_Outcome_Efficiency_in_Latin_America_Dynamic_Panel_Evidence_under_Cross-Sectional_Dependence/33965866 CC BY 4.0