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oai:figshare.com:article/33868465 2026-09-16T22:03:03Z category_575 portal_316 item_type_3 month_year_09_2026

Data Sheet 1_Food-supply resilience under policy, market, and biosecurity shocks: a diagnostic of import vulnerability, supplier substitution, and short-run callable capacity in RCEP agri-food networks.pdf Ru Guo (8466513) Bolu Wei (24999625) Mingrong Zeng (22235587) Pan Liu (527011) Bixiang Shi (24999628) Food Packaging, Preservation and Safety agri-food trade networks callable surplus food security food-supply resilience import vulnerability policy and biosecurity shocks RCEP supplier substitution Introduction<p>Policy, market, and biosecurity shocks test whether regional trade networks can maintain physical food availability when established sourcing channels are disrupted. This narrower dimension of food security is termed food-supply resilience. This study treats the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) as a policy-relevant regional supply space and examines whether its agri-food networks contain short-run callable capacity for import-vulnerable economies. The analysis advances the claim that connectivity is not capacity: trade links support resilience only when they connect vulnerable importers to suppliers with callable surplus, stable ties, and usable access.</p>Methods<p>This study constructs 126 commodity-year networks for six agri-food categories over 2001–2021 using CEPII-BACI trade data, with FAOSTAT quantities used as an independent cross-source check. Import vulnerability is measured through supplier dependence, concentration, and tie stability. Supplier substitution is assessed through regional supplier persistence, lower-bound callable surplus, gross-export upper-bound coverage, and shock-specific access conditions. Post-2021 observations are used as descriptive monitoring checks rather than as agreement-effect estimates.</p>Results<p>Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership agri-food networks became more connected, but resilience profiles diverged by commodity. Rice was the only distributed-supplier profile. Milk-powder dairy and palm oil combined large regional surplus with exporter cores concentrated around New Zealand and Australia, and Indonesia and Malaysia, respectively. Soybean and pork remained weak regional-substitution cases, while selected tropical and subtropical fruit was retained only as a compositional regional-trade profile. China showed a centrality paradox: it became more central where regional alternatives already existed but remained peripheral in soybean and pork, where extra-regional dependence mattered most. Lower-bound and gross-export upper-bound checks confirmed pervasive regional substitution gaps in soybean and pork across eligible importer profiles, not only for China. The Philippines-rice case showed the contrasting profile of an import-vulnerable economy backed by substantial regional surplus.</p>Discussion<p>The shock episodes support the diagnostic. Rice export restrictions, Indonesia’s palm-oil export ban, and the African swine fever pork shock show that regional networks support food-supply resilience only when vulnerable importers are connected to suppliers with callable surplus, stable ties, and usable access. Regional agreements can reduce frictions and improve coordination, but they do not automatically create deployable supply. Food-security governance should therefore monitor commodity-importer vulnerability, callable surplus, gross-export upper bounds, tie persistence, and access readiness rather than treating network connectivity as resilience.</p> 2026-09-16T22:03:03Z Dataset Dataset 10.3389/fsufs.2026.1924874.s001 https://figshare.com/articles/dataset/Data_Sheet_1_Food-supply_resilience_under_policy_market_and_biosecurity_shocks_a_diagnostic_of_import_vulnerability_supplier_substitution_and_short-run_callable_capacity_in_RCEP_agri-food_networks_pdf/33868465 CC BY 4.0