2026-10-12T04:33:20Z https://api.figshare.com/v2/oai

oai:figshare.com:article/33406687 2026-09-30T18:32:34Z category_34421 portal_231 item_type_8 month_year_09_2026

The Red Sea Response: A Time-Series Analysis of Coalition Intervention Against the Houthis Buckley DeJardin (24688269) Defence studies Houthis asymmetric conflict counterterrorism Red Sea operation poseidon archer non-state actors drone warfare This paper evaluates the effectiveness of U.S.-led coalition operations under OPERATION POSEIDON ARCHER in countering Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. Using incident-level data from coalition strike reports and maritime attack logs, the study applies time-series generalized linear models to assess how coalition activity influences both the frequency and success of Houthi operations. The analysis reveals a heterogeneous temporal effect: coalition strikes are associated with a short-term increase in Houthi attack activity followed by a longer-term decrease in attack frequency, suggesting partial degradation of operational capacity. However, coalition operations do not produce a meaningful reduction in attack success rates, indicating that while attacks become less frequent, they remain similarly effective. Further analysis of weapon systems shows that Houthi attacks relying on ballistic missiles and drones, especially used in conjunction, are the most operationally effective, highlighting the strategic advantages of low-cost, precision-guided technologies in asymmetric warfare. These findings suggest that kinetic, strike-based counterterrorism strategies alone are insufficient to achieve sustained deterrence against adaptive non-state actors. The paper concludes that effective counterterrorism policy should integrate proactive targeting, disruption of supply networks, and non-military measures such as humanitarian and stabilization efforts. More broadly, the results contribute to understanding the evolving dynamics of asymmetric conflict, where technological accessibility and strategic adaptation increasingly favor non-state actors despite sustained military pressure. 2026-04-15T00:00:00Z Text Thesis 10.1184/R1/33406687.v1 https://figshare.com/articles/thesis/The_Red_Sea_Response_A_Time-Series_Analysis_of_Coalition_Intervention_Against_the_Houthis/33406687 CC BY-NC-ND 3.0