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oai:figshare.com:article/33354192 2026-09-30T11:48:33Z category_29725 portal_921 item_type_11 month_year_09_2026

The Devil in the demographics: the effect of youth bulges on domestic armed conflict, 1950-2000 Forced Migration Online (24276783) Migration, asylum and refugee law FORCED MIGRATION ONLINE YOUTH DEMOGRAPHY VIOLENCE INTERNAL CONFLICT RESEARCH This paper is part of a 'Working Paper Series' disseminating findings of work in progress to encourage discussion and exchange of ideas on conflict and development issues. The paper explores possible links between youth bulges and violent conflict theoretically and attempts to model under what conditions and in what kind of contexts youth bulges can cause armed conflict. The research hypotheses are tested in an event history statistical model covering a high number of countries and politically dependent areas over the period 1950–2000. The study finds robust support for the hypothesis that youth bulges increase the risk of domestic armed conflict, and especially so under conditions of economic stagnation. Moreover, the lack of support for the youth bulge hypothesis in recent World Bank studies is found to arise from a serious weakness in the youth bulge measure employed by World Bank researchers. 2026-09-30T11:48:33Z Text Online resource 10.25446/oxford.33354192.v1 https://figshare.com/articles/online_resource/The_Devil_in_the_demographics_the_effect_of_youth_bulges_on_domestic_armed_conflict_1950-2000/33354192 CC BY-NC-ND 4.0