2026-10-11T16:29:45Z https://api.figshare.com/v2/oai

oai:figshare.com:article/33352533 2026-09-30T11:44:04Z category_29725 portal_921 item_type_11 month_year_09_2026

Rising temperatures, rising tensions: climate change and the risk of violent conflict in the Middle East Forced Migration Online (24276783) Migration, asylum and refugee law FORCED MIGRATION ONLINE CLIMATE ENVIRONMENT CONFLICT SECURITY PEACE EFFORTS This report seeks to present a neutral analysis of the security threat of climate change in the Levant region over the next 40 years (to 2050), drawn from consultations and extensive interviews with experts from across the region's political and ethnic divides. The report makes three key points: 1. The legacy of conflict in the countries of the Levant undermines the ability of countries and communities in the region to adapt to climate change. The history of hostility and mistrust in the region greatly complicates efforts to collaborate over shared resources, to invest in more efficient water and energy use, to share new ways to adapt to climate change and to pursue truly multilateral action on climate change. Ultimately, climate change presents an even more serious challenge than it would otherwise. 2. The report shows that climate change itself poses real security concerns to the region. It may increase competition for scarce water resources, complicating peace agreements. It may intensify food insecurity, thereby raising the stakes for the return or retention of occupied land. It may hinder economic growth, worsening poverty and social instability. It could lead to destabilizing forced migration, increased tensions over refugee populations, the increased militarization of strategic natural resources and growing resentment and distrust of the West. 3. Nevertheless, the report points out there is much that national governments and authorities, civil society and the international community can do address the challenge of climate change, and in so doing, address some of the threats it may pose to regional peace and security. They can promote a culture of conservation in the region, help communities and countries adapt to the impacts of climate change, work to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and foster greater cooperation on their shared resources. 2026-09-30T11:44:04Z Text Online resource 10.25446/oxford.33352533.v1 https://figshare.com/articles/online_resource/Rising_temperatures_rising_tensions_climate_change_and_the_risk_of_violent_conflict_in_the_Middle_East/33352533 CC BY-NC-ND 4.0