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oai:figshare.com:article/32632731 2026-10-01T17:08:59Z portal_1172 item_type_8 month_year_10_2026

Mathematical modelling for the investigation of Bovine Tuberculosis in Northern Ireland Emma Brown (2260123) PUREID: 319680778 Mathematical modelling network analysis Bovine Tuberculosis deterministic epidemic modelling Bovine Tuberculosis (bTB) is a chronic, zoonotic disease caused by Mycobacterium bovis. It is endemic in Northern Ireland (NI), affecting the cattle population which contributes approximately £1 bn per annum to the local economy. The most recent incidence level (rate of occurrence) for bTB in NI is 7.85% during 2019 despite the test-and-slaughter control programme that follows EU guidelines.<br><br>Mathematical methods such as epidemic modelling and social network analysishave been successively applied to bTB-affected locations such as Great Britain, New Zealand, and the USA. However, these methodshave not previously applied to bTB in NI; therefore, applying these methods in this research provides new insight and knowledge for NI.<br>This research contains the first use of social network analysis of cattle movements in NI. Networks between herds using cattle movements for each month in 2010-2015 were analysed. Influential herds were identified and markets were highlighted as being extremely important to herd connectivity. The cattle movement network is shown to be Scale-Free with a high level of interconnection between herds. Targeted restrictions are more effective than random restrictions when more than 25% of herds are targeted, although the network remains highly connected.<br><br>The first epidemic metapopulation model of bTB for NI was also created in this research, which builds upon a simple within-herd model using cattle movements (stratified by geographical area) and wildlife interactions. Using geographically stratified movements, wildlife interactions, and considering NI as a metapopulation increases the amount of knowledge generated on bTB in NI. Additionally, this model is able to further push epidemic modelling in general, as it is novel in explicitly modelling the movements, wildlife, and metapopulation aspects at the same time. 2026-10-01T17:08:59Z Text Thesis 10.17034/32632731.v1 https://figshare.com/articles/thesis/Mathematical_modelling_for_the_investigation_of_Bovine_Tuberculosis_in_Northern_Ireland/32632731 All Rights Reserved