2026-10-06T10:37:10Z https://api.figshare.com/v2/oai

oai:figshare.com:article/32162976 2026-09-20T04:12:52Z category_25789 item_type_3 month_year_09_2026

Spatial realization uncertainty; Land-use reallocation; Urban simulation; Transport emissions; Scenario ensemble; Built-out district data data (23792677) Computational modelling and simulation in earth sciences Spatial realization uncertainty Land-use reallocation Urban simulation Transport emissions <p dir="ltr">Compact and mixed land use is promoted for transport decarbonization, but the emission effects of land-use reallocation in built-out districts remain unclear. We examine whether the magnitude and direction of these effects depend on which parcels are converted under the same area targets for each land-use class. In Futian District, Shenzhen, we compare tailpipe CO₂ from interzonal car travel under baseline, service-oriented, and residential-oriented scenarios. Per scenario-year, repeated stochastic allocation generates 100 parcel maps (spatial realizations) meeting the same targets under a fixed land total. To assess spatial-realization and parameter uncertainty, each realization was evaluated through the same travel-demand and emission chain with the same 500 downstream parameter draws. The findings reveal that (1) with downstream parameters held fixed, service-oriented reallocation lowers mean emissions by 0.33% in 2025 and 1.21% in 2030 and emits less than the baseline in 84% and 93% of realizations, whereas residential-oriented reallocation shows no stable increase; (2) reduced trip generation contributes to lower emissions in every realization, and a smaller share of trips leaving their zone does so in most, while distance and car-share contributions vary in sign; and (3) among the represented uncertainty sources, spatial realization accounts for over nine-tenths of the variation in scenario differences. Bounding electrification pathways cut 2030 emissions by 30–53% relative to the 2020 reference fleet. Land-use reallocation is thus a modest, spatially contingent complement to electrification; scenario assessments should report results across maps, not one map.</p> 2026-09-20T04:12:52Z Dataset Dataset 10.6084/m9.figshare.32162976.v1 https://figshare.com/articles/dataset/Spatial_realization_uncertainty_Land-use_reallocation_Urban_simulation_Transport_emissions_Scenario_ensemble_Built-out_district/32162976 CC BY 4.0