2026-10-09T10:01:26Z https://api.figshare.com/v2/oai

oai:figshare.com:article/31567279 2026-09-11T23:04:35Z category_24238 category_26932 category_26899 item_type_3 month_year_09_2026

ASSESSING EXPOSURE OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN LANDBIRD SPECIES TO PROJECTED CLIMATE AND LAND COVER CHANGE Matthew Gilbert (20850293) Courtney Davis (16316364) Andrew Stillman (18369384) Kylee D. Dunham (24806854) Ecology not elsewhere classified Conservation and biodiversity Landscape ecology Biodiversity climate change vulnerability risk conservation land cover land use Aim: Biodiversity is declining at an alarming rate due to myriad factors, especially changes in climate and land use that are only expected to intensify in the coming decades. We aim to assess species’ potential exposure to projected climate and land use changes over large spatial extents. Location: Eastern United States. Time Coverage: Present to 2100. Major Taxa Studied: Birds. Methods: We used publicly available eBird-derived data products on the relative abundances of 218 landbird species across the eastern United States to quantify species- and community-level exposure to projected climate and land use changes through the end of the century. We assessed the relationship between climate and land cover exposure for individual species and for the entire avian community, and we identified the ecological characteristics associated with the most vulnerable species, species groups, and locations across the region. Results: We found that the species and areas which were most exposed to these threats were broadly consistent under different climate forecast scenarios but that mean climate exposure was 57% higher under the more pessimistic emissions scenario. High-latitude species and species associated with forest and grassland environments had relatively high projected exposure to climate change, whereas species associated with non-forested environments will face higher exposure to changes in land use. By examining land cover and climate projections simultaneously, our analysis showed that most species will likely experience high exposure to either climate or to land use change, but rarely both. Main conclusions: Despite differences in the species potentially affected by these threats, spatial patterns of community-wide exposure to climate and land use change were strongly correlated (Pearson’s r = 0.78-0.84), underscoring the need to target conservation intervention towards key areas across the eastern United States where avian communities may be the most vulnerable. 2026-03-09T00:06:29Z Dataset Dataset 10.6084/m9.figshare.31567279.v2 https://figshare.com/articles/dataset/ASSESSING_EXPOSURE_OF_EASTERN_NORTH_AMERICAN_LANDBIRD_SPECIES_TO_PROJECTED_CLIMATE_AND_LAND_COVER_CHANGE_DIVERSITY_AND_DISTRIBUTIONS_REVISION_/31567279 CC BY 4.0