2026-10-11T15:10:21Z https://api.figshare.com/v2/oai

oai:figshare.com:article/11328605 2026-09-15T12:49:35Z category_146 category_7 category_13 category_21 category_734 category_931 category_64 category_133 portal_87 item_type_3 month_year_09_2026

Development and validation of a prediction model for identifying men with intermediate- or high-risk prostate cancer for whom bone imaging is unnecessary: a nation-wide population-based study Rebecka Arnsrud Godtman (8088755) Marianne Månsson (7573676) Ola Bratt (3071766) David Robinsson (8088758) Eva Johansson (335751) Pär Stattin (124323) Henrik Kjölhede (8088761) Space Science Medicine Genetics Biotechnology Biological Sciences not elsewhere classified Information Systems not elsewhere classified Cancer Plant Biology Bone metastasis imaging prostate cancer staging Objective: To develop and validate a nomogram that identifies men for whom bone scan is unnecessary. Material and methods: The study datasets were derived from the National Prostate Cancer Register (NPCR) of Sweden. All men in the NPCR ≤80 years of age who were diagnosed with intermediate- or high-risk prostate cancer and who had pretreatment bone imaging (99mTc MDP scintigraphy, plain x-ray, computed tomography, magnetic resonance imaging, and/or positron emission tomography fused with computed tomography) were included. Men diagnosed from 2015–2016 formed a development dataset and men diagnosed in 2017 formed a validation dataset. Outcome was metastasis on bone imaging as registered in NPCR. Multivariable logistic regression was used to develop a nomogram. Results: In the development dataset 482/5084 men (10%) had bone metastasis, the corresponding percentage in the validation dataset was 282/2554 (11%). Gleason grade group, clinical T stage, and prostate-specific antigen were included in the final model. Discrimination and calibration were satisfactory in both the development (AUC 0.80, 95% CI 0.78–0.82) and validation dataset (AUC 0.80, 95% CI, 0.77–0.82). Compared with using the EAU guidelines’ recommendation for selecting men for imaging, using the nomogram with a cut-off at 4% chance of bone metastasis, would have avoided imaging in 519/2068 men (25%) and miss bone metastasis in 10/519 (2%) men in the validation dataset. Conclusion: By use of our nomogram, bone scans of men with prostate cancer can be avoided in a large proportion of men. 2019-12-06T02:51:55Z Dataset Dataset 10.6084/m9.figshare.11328605.v2 https://figshare.com/articles/dataset/Development_and_validation_of_a_prediction_model_for_identifying_men_with_intermediate-_or_high-risk_prostate_cancer_for_whom_bone_imaging_is_unnecessary_a_nation-wide_population-based_study/11328605 CC BY 4.0